Has Flu Season Peaked Yet? What the Latest CDC Data Really Means for Your Family
Flu cases in the U.S. are finally starting to tick down, according to the latest CDC data, but the country is not out of the woods yet—especially for children. In the week ending Jan. 10, 15 more pediatric deaths were reported, bringing this season’s total to 32. For many families, the question now is simple: Has the flu peaked in my state, and what should I do next?
In this guide, we’ll walk through what the CDC’s current flu reports actually mean, how to tell if activity has likely peaked where you live, and practical, science-backed steps to protect yourself and your family in the coming weeks.
Where We Are in the 2025–2026 Flu Season
The CDC’s most recent flu surveillance shows that overall flu activity has started to decline nationally. That’s encouraging, but there are three important caveats:
- Some states appear to have passed their peak, while others remain at high or very high activity.
- Pediatric flu deaths continue to rise, underscoring that severe illness is still very possible.
- Flu seasons often decline in waves—a national downturn doesn’t mean it’s over for your community.
“When we see national flu indicators start to drop, it usually means the peak has passed overall—but there can still be weeks of substantial activity and serious illness ahead, especially in regions that peaked later.”
— CDC influenza surveillance epidemiologist, via recent media briefing
So while headlines may say “flu is declining,” the more relevant question for you is: What’s happening in my state right now?
Has Flu Peaked in Your State? How to Read the CDC Maps
The CDC publishes a weekly report called FluView, which includes a color-coded map showing flu activity by state. You don’t have to be an epidemiologist to get useful information from it.
- Check the latest state activity map.
Look for your state’s color (minimal, low, moderate, high, very high). If your state recently shifted from “very high” to “high,” or from “high” to “moderate,” it’s a sign that activity may have passed its peak. - Compare this week to the last 2–3 weeks.
A single week of decline could be noise. A consistent 2–3 week downward trend in:- Outpatient visits for flu-like illness (ILI)
- Positive flu tests
- Flu-related hospitalizations
- Look at local, not just state-level, data.
Many states publish county-level dashboards. Your county could still be rising even if the state is falling, especially in large or diverse regions. - Watch hospital strain.
If nearby hospitals are still reporting high flu admissions or ER crowding, your community remains in a higher-risk phase, regardless of the state’s overall pattern.
Declining Flu Cases Don’t Mean Zero Risk
Even as national flu indicators cool off, the virus is still circulating. The fact that 15 additional children died in a single reported week—bringing the total pediatric deaths to 32 this season—underscores that serious outcomes can occur late in the curve.
A useful way to think about it:
- Peak is the highest point, not the end.
- Decline still means many people are getting sick; just fewer than at the peak.
- Risk is uneven: kids, older adults, pregnant people, and those with chronic conditions stay at higher risk longer.
“From a family’s perspective, what matters isn’t whether the national curve is going up or down—it’s whether the virus is still common in your community and how vulnerable your household is.”
— Pediatric infectious disease specialist, children’s hospital case review
Evidence-Based Ways to Protect Yourself While Flu Is Still Circulating
You can’t control when the season peaks, but you can reduce your risk of catching or spreading flu. Research consistently supports a layered approach:
1. Vaccination: Still Worth It, Even After the Peak
CDC guidance continues to support getting a flu shot as long as flu viruses are circulating. Effectiveness varies each year, but studies generally show:
- Reduced risk of needing a doctor’s visit for flu.
- Lower rates of hospitalization, especially in older adults and children.
- Less severe illness even when vaccinated people do get the flu.
2. Smart Habits in High-Risk Settings
Flu spreads efficiently in crowded indoor spaces. Simple behaviors make a measurable difference:
- Stay home when you’re sick (fever, body aches, sudden fatigue, cough).
- Wear a well-fitting mask if you must be in crowded indoor spaces while local activity is high, especially if you’re high-risk.
- Improve ventilation—open windows briefly, use portable HEPA filters where possible.
- Wash hands regularly and avoid touching your face with unwashed hands.
3. Early Treatment for High-Risk People
Antiviral medications (like oseltamivir, known by the brand name Tamiflu, and others) can:
- Shorten the duration of illness in some people.
- Reduce the risk of complications and hospitalization when started early in high-risk patients.
They work best when started within 48 hours of symptom onset, so don’t wait if a high-risk family member develops flu-like symptoms—call your clinician promptly.
Why Children Remain a Key Concern Late in the Season
The recent report of 15 more pediatric deaths in a single week, for a total of 32 this season, is a stark reminder: children can and do get severely ill from flu, even when headlines are focused on “declining activity.”
Several factors make kids especially vulnerable:
- Immature immune systems, particularly in kids under 5.
- Close-contact environments like schools and daycare, where viruses spread quickly.
- Higher likelihood of asthma or other underlying conditions that worsen flu outcomes.
Warning Signs in Children That Need Urgent Care
Contact emergency services or go to an ER immediately if a child with flu-like symptoms has:
- Difficulty breathing or very fast breathing.
- Bluish lips or face.
- Chest pain, severe muscle pain, or inability to wake up or stay awake.
- Signs of dehydration (no tears when crying, not peeing for 8+ hours, dry mouth).
- Sudden dizziness, confusion, or seizures.
- Flu symptoms that improve but then suddenly worsen with fever and cough.
Practical Steps for Households Right Now
Whether your state is clearly past its peak or still climbing, these simple actions can reduce the amount of flu circulating in your home:
- Do a quick household risk check.
List anyone who is pregnant, over 65, under 5, or has chronic conditions (asthma, diabetes, heart disease, immune compromise). Prioritize protections around them. - Update flu vaccinations where appropriate.
If someone who’s eligible still hasn’t been vaccinated, schedule an appointment or visit a local pharmacy or clinic. - Make a “flu-ready” kit.
Include a thermometer, fever reducers (as recommended by your clinician), tissues, electrolyte drinks, masks, and a list of key phone numbers (pediatrician, on-call nurse line, telehealth service). - Plan ahead for sick days.
If possible, clarify workplace or school policies so you don’t feel pressured to send a sick child to school or go to work while contagious. - Set simple house rules.
For example: cover coughs with your elbow, wash hands before meals, and no sharing cups or utensils when anyone has symptoms.
Common Obstacles—and Realistic Ways to Navigate Them
It’s one thing to know what to do; it’s another to actually do it when you’re juggling work, school, and finances. Here are some of the most common barriers people face and ways to work around them.
“I can’t miss work, even if I’m sick.”
- Ask HR about remote work options if you have a job that allows it.
- Use telehealth visits to get documentation if needed.
- At minimum, wear a mask and keep distance from colleagues if policy and symptoms allow you to be present.
“I’m not sure I can afford a doctor’s visit.”
- Many community health centers offer sliding-scale or low-cost visits.
- State Medicaid programs and some local initiatives may cover flu-related care.
- Pharmacies often provide flu vaccines with no or low copay for insured people; some public clinics offer them free.
“Flu information keeps changing and it’s overwhelming.”
- Pick two trusted sources (for example, CDC and your state health department) and ignore the rest.
- Set a specific time each week to check updates instead of doomscrolling.
- Ask your clinician to help you interpret what the trends mean for you, not just the population.
What the Science and Experts Say About the Weeks Ahead
Epidemiologists look at several indicators to judge how close we are to the end of flu season: outpatient visits for flu-like illness, lab-confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Right now, those indicators suggest:
- A plateau or gradual decline nationally, with variation by region.
- Continued burden on hospitals that serve high-risk populations.
- Ongoing pediatric vulnerability, based on rising death counts.
“Even in a ‘downward’ phase of the curve, we can see hundreds of thousands of cases and many hospitalizations. The goal now is to blunt the tail of the season—especially for the most vulnerable.”
— Academic public health researcher, influenza modeling group
No intervention can guarantee you won’t get the flu. But a combination of vaccination, good respiratory hygiene, and early care for high-risk people consistently reduces severe outcomes at the population level.
Moving Forward: Stay Informed, Not Alarmed
Flu cases may be declining overall in the U.S., but the virus is still very much here—and for some families, the hardest weeks may not be over yet. The rise to 32 pediatric deaths this season is a heavy reminder of why prevention and early care matter.
You don’t need to track every data point or read every headline. Focus on what you can control:
- Check your state’s flu status once a week.
- Keep vaccinations, especially for kids and high-risk adults, up to date where appropriate.
- Stay home when sick, and seek care early for high-risk family members.
- Use simple, sustainable habits—handwashing, ventilation, masking in high-risk settings—through the end of the season.
If you’re unsure what the latest trends mean for your specific situation, consider a brief conversation with your primary care clinician or pediatrician. Bring your questions about local flu activity, vaccination timing, and treatment options—they can help you make a plan that feels both realistic and protective for your household.
Next step today: Take five minutes to look up your state’s current flu activity and, if needed, schedule any remaining flu shots for your family. A small action now can still make a meaningful difference for the rest of this season.
