Is Black Friday Fading or Evolving? Inside the New Holiday Halo Around U.S. Retailers
Black Friday 2024: Fewer Midnight Rushes, Still the Biggest Day in Stores
In U.S. malls and main streets, the Black Friday storyline has shifted. Gone are the days when people routinely left Thanksgiving dinner to queue up for midnight openings and limited-time doorbusters. Many big-box retailers now stay closed on Thanksgiving Day, pushing their earliest deals online and extending them over weeks rather than hours.
Despite that transformation, Black Friday still brings more people into physical stores than any other day of the year, according to retail traffic trackers such as Sensormatic Solutions and Placer.ai. The difference in 2024 is that the single-day frenzy has morphed into a “holiday halo,” with retailers hoping that early and late-season promotions will lift sales well beyond the long weekend.
“The line between Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the rest of the holiday season has blurred, but the appetite for deals has not.”
What Is the “Holiday Halo Effect” — And Why Retailers Are Betting on It
The holiday halo effect describes how promotions that once revolved around a narrow Black Friday window now radiate across much of November and even into early January. Retailers are aiming to smooth out foot traffic, reduce staffing spikes, and keep inventory flowing steadily instead of relying on a single, risky weekend.
Key elements of the holiday halo strategy
- Early deal drops: “Black Friday pricing” appearing as early as late October, particularly online.
- Rolling promotions: Different categories — electronics, toys, apparel — get featured in waves each week.
- Blended online–offline offers: Buy online, pick up in store (BOPIS), and curbside pickup to capture both e-commerce and in-person traffic.
- Loyalty-only discounts: Members receive exclusive codes, bonus points, and app-only deals.
- Post-Christmas clearance: New Year markdowns aimed at catching returns traffic and gift card redemptions.
The underlying logic is straightforward: if consumers are more price-sensitive and careful with spending, capturing them over a longer window gives chains more chances to win each purchase — and to cross-sell higher-margin items.
The Consumer Mood: Inflation Fatigue Meets Deal Hunting
As of late 2024, U.S. consumers are navigating a mixed economic picture. Headline inflation has cooled from 2022 peaks, but prices for essentials such as food, rent, and services remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Wage growth has slowed, and student loan payments have resumed for many younger shoppers.
How shoppers are adapting this Black Friday
- Budget caps: Households are setting stricter holiday budgets, tracking spending more carefully than in the stimulus-era boom.
- Fewer impulse buys: Shoppers are researching online, comparing prices, and using wish lists before committing.
- Trading down, selectively: Premium brands for “special” gifts, but value or store brands for everyday items.
- Buy-now, pay-later tools: BNPL services remain popular, especially online, though many consumers remain cautious about debt.
- Experience spending: Some families are shifting part of their budget to travel and experiences, trimming physical gift lists.
Surveys from the National Retail Federation suggest that while total holiday spending may reach or slightly exceed 2023 levels, growth is modest and driven heavily by higher prices, not by higher volumes.
Online Black Friday Is Booming — But Stores Still Matter
E-commerce giants and major retailers’ own websites are expected to set new records again for both Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. Adobe Analytics and Salesforce data in recent years show steady year-over-year increases in online Black Friday revenue, fueled by mobile shopping, flexible deliveries, and aggressive “online-only” deals.
Why digital Black Friday keeps gaining ground
- Mobile-first shopping: A growing share of traffic and purchases comes from smartphones, often in the evenings at home.
- Real-time price tracking: Tools and browser extensions help shoppers instantly see if a price is truly a bargain.
- Fast shipping and BOPIS: Consumers can secure deals online and still pick up the same day.
- Personalized recommendations: Algorithms surface relevant offers, add-ons, and bundles.
Still, physical stores offer something the web cannot fully replicate: the ability to touch, try, and immediately take home purchases. For categories like apparel, footwear, and larger electronics, in-person browsing remains important.
“Retail is not dying — bad retail is dying. The future is a blend of digital convenience and in-store experience.”
Which Categories Are Set to Win Black Friday 2024?
Early sales data, web search trends, and retailer guidance point to several strong-performing categories this season. Retailers are concentrating their deepest Black Friday and Cyber Monday discounts where consumers are still eager to spend.
Electronics and gaming: Still a magnet for doorbusters
TVs, gaming consoles, laptops, and tablets remain flagship Black Friday attractions. While fewer shoppers are lining up overnight, big-ticket tech items often drive the heaviest advertising and set the tone for the season.
Popular choices in the U.S. this season include mainstream, highly reviewed products such as the PlayStation 5 Slim Console for gamers and the 10.9‑inch Apple iPad (Wi‑Fi, 256GB) for families and students seeking versatile devices.
Home, kitchen, and “comfort” spending
With many consumers still spending considerable time at home, small appliances, smart home devices, and cookware sets are drawing strong interest. Products like the Instant Pot Duo 7-in-1 pressure cooker and Keurig K‑Classic single‑serve coffee maker frequently feature in Black Friday advertisements due to their mass appeal.
Apparel, beauty, and self-care
Fashion and beauty categories are leaning on bundled sets and loyalty-based discounts rather than door-crashers. Shoppers are using this period to restock wardrobe basics, buy winter outerwear, or pick up curated gift sets from skincare and cosmetics brands.
How Major Retailers Are Adjusting Their Black Friday Playbook
Big-box chains, department stores, and specialty retailers have all updated their strategies in response to changing behavior. Many no longer rely on “loss leader” doorbusters that caused chaotic crowds, instead favoring more controlled and targeted offers.
Key strategic shifts in 2024
- Fewer extreme markdowns, more curated value: Deep discounts are being reserved for a narrower set of items, while the rest of the assortment leans on “good enough” pricing and exclusive bundles.
- Inventory discipline: After the 2021–2022 supply chain swings, retailers are cautious about over-ordering seasonal goods that could require steep markdowns in January.
- Data-driven offers: Loyalty program insights guide which items are featured in ads, digital circulars, and push notifications.
- Flexible staffing: Scheduling tools help balance peak in-store hours with online order fulfillment and curbside pickups.
Retailers are also paying close attention to the broader economic backdrop, including Federal Reserve policy and wage trends, as they calibrate their promotional intensity for December and into early 2025.
Why Foot Traffic Still Matters in a Digital-First Era
Even as online sales surge, the industry continues to watch in-store traffic numbers on Black Friday as a bellwether of consumer confidence. Analytics firms like Sensormatic Solutions, Placer.ai, and Springboard release real-time estimates that Wall Street analysts and retail executives track closely.
What analysts look for in Black Friday data
- Year-over-year traffic growth: A sign that shoppers are more willing to browse, not just buy online.
- Conversion rates: How many visitors leave with a purchase — crucial for store profitability.
- Average transaction value: Whether baskets are growing or shrinking as consumers manage budgets.
- Category mix: The balance between discretionary categories (electronics, fashion) and staples.
Strong Black Friday traffic does not guarantee a strong season, but disappointing numbers can quickly lead to heavier markdowns and profit warnings as retailers scramble to clear shelves before the New Year.
What Retail Experts and Influencers Are Saying
Retail strategists, economists, and consumer influencers on platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, and LinkedIn are dissecting the evolution of Black Friday in real time, offering guidance for both shoppers and industry insiders.
Industry figures such as Jason “Retailgeek” Goldberg and Deborah Weinswig frequently highlight how omnichannel investments and consumer data are changing promotion strategies, particularly around peak events.
“Black Friday has turned into a multi-week marathon rather than a one-day sprint. The real winners are those who execute consistently across every channel, every day of the season.”
For a deeper analytical view of sales patterns and pricing tactics, readers often turn to McKinsey’s retail insights and the annual holiday outlooks from Deloitte , which detail how shopper expectations are shifting year by year.
Smart Black Friday Strategies for Shoppers in 2024
For consumers, the new Black Friday reality offers opportunity and complexity. With deals spread across weeks and platforms, the challenge is not just finding bargains but doing so without overspending or falling for misleading promotions.
Practical tips to make the most of the holiday halo
- Start with a written list and budget: Prioritize must-buy items, nice-to-have gifts, and a strict total spending cap.
- Use price history tools: Browser extensions and deal-tracking sites can help you confirm whether “60% off” is based on a realistic starting price.
- Leverage loyalty programs: Store memberships often unlock extra discounts or free shipping during Black Friday week.
- Compare shipping and return policies: Factor delivery times, restocking fees, and return windows into your decision.
- Protect your data and privacy: Shop only on secure sites (look for HTTPS), avoid public Wi‑Fi for payments, and be cautious with unfamiliar discount links on social media.
For those who prefer expert curation, YouTube channels such as The Deal Guy and CNET Deals regularly review top Black Friday offers, comparing real value versus hype.
Why Wall Street Cares So Much About Black Friday Numbers
For investors, the Black Friday–Cyber Monday stretch functions as an early report card on retail health. While a single weekend does not define the entire quarter, it often shapes expectations for earnings, 2025 guidance, and even store expansion or closure plans.
Metrics closely watched by analysts
- Comparable store sales (comps): Year-over-year sales at locations open at least a year.
- Digital sales growth: The pace of e-commerce versus physical store performance.
- Gross margin trends: How heavy promotions impact profitability.
- Inventory levels: Whether retailers are entering December with lean or bloated stock.
Analysts from firms such as Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Bank of America typically publish rapid weekend recaps, incorporating traffic data, card-spend trackers, and early channel checks. Their assessments can move stock prices for major chains long before official earnings are released.
Extra Insights: How Black Friday Today Shapes Retail Tomorrow
The 2024 Black Friday season is more than a sales event; it is a live test of how U.S. retail will balance experience, value, and digital innovation in the years ahead. Every click, store visit, and purchase helps retailers refine algorithms, adjust assortments, and rethink how they design future holiday calendars.
For consumers, understanding this bigger picture can transform Black Friday from a single shopping day into an opportunity to:
- Support brands and stores that align with your values and budget.
- Use competition between retailers to secure better long-term value, not just one-off deals.
- Spot emerging trends — from sustainable packaging to flexible fulfillment — that will shape everyday shopping in 2025 and beyond.
As retailers tally up results from this year’s “holiday halo,” the lessons they learn will influence everything from next year’s store layouts and websites to how, when, and where the biggest deals of the season appear. For anyone following the future of shopping, what happens around Black Friday 2024 is worth watching closely.
