Barnaby Joyce’s Possible One Nation Defection Puts Pressure on Australia’s Nationals
Former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce is confronting a pivotal career choice, vowing that by the end of this week he will either announce his retirement from federal politics or defect to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party — a move that could destabilise the National Party and reshape conservative politics across regional Australia, according to senior party figures and political analysts.
Joyce, a longstanding figure in the federal Nationals and one of the most recognisable faces in Australian politics, has framed the decision as a binary choice. His public ultimatum comes amid internal party tensions, rising pressure from right‑wing minor parties, and growing debate about how best to represent regional voters on issues ranging from cost of living to climate and energy policy.
A Maverick Career at the Heart of Canberra
Barnaby Joyce first entered the federal parliament as a Queensland Nationals senator in 2005 before shifting to the lower house seat of New England in New South Wales. Over two decades he has served twice as leader of the Nationals and twice as Australia’s deputy prime minister in Coalition governments led by Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull.
Known for his combative style and blunt rhetoric, Joyce has often positioned himself as a staunch defender of regional and rural Australia. Supporters argue he gives voice to communities that feel overlooked by major party leadership based in metropolitan areas. Critics, however, point to a series of controversies — including a high‑profile personal scandal and questions over conduct in office — that ultimately contributed to his stepping down from the leadership in 2018 and again in 2022.
The Nationals, formally the National Party of Australia, are the junior partner in the federal Coalition with the Liberal Party. Founded in the early 20th century as the Country Party, they have historically championed farmers and regional businesses, exchanging electoral strength outside cities for influence in Coalition cabinets. Joyce’s looming decision now tests that long‑standing arrangement at a moment when the conservative vote is fragmenting.
Defect or Retire: Joyce’s Self‑Imposed Deadline
In recent weeks, Joyce has signalled frustration with the direction of the Nationals and the broader Coalition, suggesting that regional concerns on energy prices, water policy and cultural issues are not being given sufficient priority. He has publicly floated the option of joining One Nation, led by Senator Pauline Hanson, as an alternative platform he believes is more closely aligned with some disaffected rural voters.
According to reporting by the ABC and other Australian media outlets, Joyce has told colleagues and journalists that he will make his position clear by the end of the current parliamentary week. People close to the former leader say he is weighing the personal toll of another election campaign against his continued concern over what he views as the political neglect of regional communities.
“My future will be decided by one thing: whether I can effectively fight for the people of New England. If that’s inside the Nationals, so be it. If that means a different path, including One Nation, I’ll consider it. And if it’s time to step aside, I’ll be honest about that too,” Joyce has told associates, according to local party sources.
While Joyce has not formally confirmed negotiations with One Nation, senior figures in both parties acknowledge informal discussions about policy alignment and the political implications of any move. One Nation has been steadily targeting disillusioned Coalition voters in regional seats, particularly on issues such as migration, energy policy and social change.
What a Joyce Exit Could Mean for the Nationals
Political analysts say a high‑profile defection from the Nationals to One Nation would be symbolically significant, even if it involved only a single MP. Joyce remains a well‑known figure, and his departure would highlight the broader challenge major parties face from minor parties and independents in regional electorates.
- It could embolden other disaffected conservatives to consider crossing the floor or contesting as independents.
- It may complicate seat‑by‑seat negotiations between the Liberals and Nationals ahead of the next federal election.
- It would likely force the Coalition to devote additional resources to defending seats once regarded as safely Nationals.
The New England electorate, which Joyce currently represents, has previously shown a willingness to back independents. In 2013, he succeeded independent MP Tony Windsor, who had supported the minority Labor government after the 2010 hung parliament. Any vacancy or change in Joyce’s political branding could reopen the door for a strong local independent or a better‑resourced minor party candidate.
The Coalition’s current leadership has publicly downplayed the prospect of a major split. However, strategists privately concede that even the threat of defection could fuel perceptions of internal instability, complicating efforts to present a united alternative government on economic management and cost‑of‑living issues.
Mixed Reactions Across the Political Spectrum
Senior Nationals have responded to reports of Joyce’s deliberations with a mixture of restraint and frustration. Officially, party leaders say they respect his right to consider his future but insist the organisation remains united.
A senior Nationals figure, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to comment publicly, said the party had “given Barnaby enormous opportunities over many years” and argued that any move to One Nation would be “a personal decision, not a reflection of the party’s broader direction.”
One Nation representatives, meanwhile, have been careful not to pre‑empt Joyce’s decision. A spokesperson pointed to the party’s long‑standing focus on regional Australia, telling local media that “any MP who shares our commitment to standing up for everyday Australians is welcome to talk to us,” but declining to comment on specific discussions.
Political scientists note that the episode is part of a broader trend in Australian politics in which traditional party loyalties are weakening, particularly outside major cities. Dr. Jill Sheppard, a political analyst at the Australian National University, has previously observed that voters are increasingly willing to “shop around” between major parties, minor parties and independents in search of more localised representation.
“A Joyce defection would be less about numbers in the short term and more about the signal it sends: that even senior figures in the Nationals see value in aligning with a protest party like One Nation,” said one analyst interviewed by national broadcasters.
Regional Voters, Policy Rifts and the Rise of Minor Parties
The debate over Joyce’s future highlights deeper policy divides among conservative parties, particularly on climate, energy and social issues. Many regional electorates are simultaneously exposed to the economic impact of climate‑driven droughts and floods, the opportunities of renewable energy projects, and community unease about rapid change.
The Nationals have struggled to balance the interests of farmers, mining communities and small‑town businesses as Australia transitions its energy system. One Nation has sought to capitalise on this uncertainty by criticising climate targets it argues are too disruptive, while accusing both major party groupings of neglecting regional livelihoods.
Cost‑of‑living pressures — including rising grocery prices, housing costs and fuel bills — have further sharpened political competition. Some regional voters tell reporters they feel the Nationals have become too closely aligned with urban‑based Coalition decision‑makers, while others credit the party with securing infrastructure and services that might otherwise have been overlooked.
Against this backdrop, a decision by Joyce to join One Nation could be interpreted by some voters as a protest against the status quo in Canberra. Others may view it as a personal move driven more by internal party disagreements than by policy. The outcome in New England and surrounding regions will provide an early indication of how this dynamic plays out on the ground.
What Happens Next?
Joyce’s self‑imposed deadline ensures that the Nationals, One Nation and the wider Coalition cannot easily avoid the question of how best to represent regional Australia. If he chooses retirement, party officials will move quickly to select a new candidate for New England and to assert that the transition reflects renewal rather than rupture.
A decision to remain within the Nationals would likely require some form of internal accommodation, potentially including a renewed policy focus on specific regional issues Joyce has championed. Conversely, a defection to One Nation would recalibrate the balance of power in Canberra, giving the minor party a louder voice in national debates and prompting fresh scrutiny of the Nationals’ campaign strategies.
For now, voters in New England and beyond are left to watch a familiar figure confront an unusually stark choice, one that will carry consequences not just for Barnaby Joyce’s political career but for the evolving shape of conservative politics in Australia’s regions.
